DB's Mark Wall on ECB
“This is a significant moment. Not only is this the first ECB hike since 2023, it is also the first hike by one of the major global central banks in response to the energy shock. The ECB is saying that a ‘look through’ strategy is not a robust response. The question is how far can this tightening cycle go? Not far, is our answer. There is upside risk to inflation, but there is also downside risk to growth. One more hike in September and that’s it.”
Deutsche Bank's Mark Wall comments on ECB's first rate hike since 2023 in response to energy shock, predicting limited tightening with possibly one more hike in September before pausing due to growth risks.
关键要点
First ECB hike since 2023, first major central bank response to energy shock
ECB rejecting 'look through' strategy on inflation
DB expects limited tightening cycle: one more hike in September then done
Upside inflation risk vs downside growth risk cited as constraint
