RT Jeffrey Currie 🆔++
The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care.
Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable.
VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion.
Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change
Oil prices are suppressed below $100/bbl not by fundamentals but by capital aversion driven by policy uncertainty. Investor VaR has collapsed to $1.4B, open interest is at multi-year lows, and market depth has disappeared despite global oil stocks drawing 5-6 mb/d. Investors are voluntarily exiting due to uncomcompensable volatility from policy noise (deal on/off cycles, geopolitical attack risks).
WTI crude oil futures (CL) face structural bearish pressure from investor capital withdrawal despite tight physical fundamentals. VaR collapse and record low open interest signal sustained selling pressure regardless of supply-demand balance. No external data available to confirm current price levels or recent moves.
关键要点
Investor VaR collapsed to $1.4B, indicating capital flight from oil markets
2026 YTD open interest decline is worst on record, driven by voluntary exits not external shocks
Global oil stocks still drawing 5-6 mb/d but investors disregard fundamentals
Policy uncertainty (geopolitical, deal cycles) has made oil volatility uncomcompensable
Unlike 2022, no rate shocks or sanctions forcing exits—pure capital aversion
