Bro I still can't believe Japan's WF6 supply chain got shut down from China export controls.
Which affects $TSM, Samsung, and SK Hynix.
Are we really playing global supply chain warfare and game theory over AI supremacy?
Japan probably has the most amount of obscure monopolies, but they haven't fully been weaponizing it back yet.
So I wonder if this is the start of a slippery slope?
Author highlights China's WF6 (tungsten hexafluoride, a critical semiconductor precursor gas) export controls impacting major chipmakers TSM, Samsung, and SK Hynix, framing it as escalating supply chain warfare over AI dominance. Expresses concern this may trigger retaliatory weaponization of Japan's niche monopolies, potentially starting a broader conflict.
Author identifies TSM as directly impacted by China's WF6 export controls, a critical input disruption for semiconductor manufacturing. However, external data shows TSM trading at $421.07 (+3.01%), near record revenue (NT$417B in latest report), strong AI chip demand (+30% May sales YoY), and upcoming July 15 earnings. The supply chain risk is real but current price action and fundamentals show resilience; market may already be pricing in mitigation strategies or alternative sourcing. Author's concern is forward-looking geopolitical risk rather than immediate operational breakdown.
事件 Earnings (EPS est 23.8854) · 2026-07-15
关键要点
China's WF6 export restrictions directly affect TSM, Samsung, and SK Hynix semiconductor production
Views this as geopolitical supply chain warfare tied to AI supremacy competition
Notes Japan holds numerous obscure supply chain monopolies that could be weaponized in response
Sees risk of escalating tit-for-tat export controls creating broader instability
