SPACEX COULD BRING IN $300-400 BILLION IN REVENUE PER YEAR BY 2030 SAYS ARK INVEST
Here's the math that gets @wintonARK there:
Starlink currently has ~500 terabits per second of bandwidth in space.
One Starship rocket filled with satellites adds 60 terabits per second.
10 launches roughly doubles their bandwidth. 10 launches doubles their revenue.
SpaceX has done 150-160 Falcon 9 launches. Falcon 9 isn't even fully reusable.
If they run Starship at that same cadence for 2 years, the model gets to nearly $200 billion in Starlink revenue alone.
At a 10x revenue multiple, that's a $2 trillion valuation.
ARK Invest projects SpaceX could reach $300-400B annual revenue by 2030, with Starlink potentially generating ~$200B alone. The thesis relies on scaling Starship launches to double bandwidth capacity repeatedly, extrapolating from Falcon 9's 150-160 launch cadence to imply a $2T valuation at 10x revenue multiple.
关键要点
ARK projects $300-400B annual revenue for SpaceX by 2030
Model assumes ~$200B from Starlink based on aggressive bandwidth scaling
Claims 10 Starship launches double bandwidth/revenue (60 terabits per launch)
Extrapolates Falcon 9 launch rate (150-160) to Starship over 2 years
