“Once a bull market gets underway and once you reach the point where everybody has made money no matter what system he or she followed, a crowd is attracted into the game that is responding not to interest rates and profits but simply to the fact that it seems a mistake be out of stocks. In effect, these people superimpose an I-can’t-miss-the-party factor on top of the fundamental factors that drive the market. Like Pavlov’s dog, these “investors” learn that when the bell rings – in this case, the one that opens the New York Stock Exchange at 9:30 AM – they get fed. Through this daily reinforcement, they become convinced that there is a God and that He wants them to get rich.”
– Warren Buffett, November 1999
Dougie Kass: My long time acquaintance, Ron Baron (who I have known for 45 years) makes extremely optimistic projections about $SPCX.
I like and admire Ron.
He is a believer and has prospered mightily from his exposure to Elon Musk's companies (particularly $TSLA and $SPCX).
However and
Doug Kass quotes Buffett's 1999 warning about late-stage bull market euphoria and expresses skepticism toward Ron Baron's extremely optimistic SpaceX projections, despite acknowledging Baron's past success with Musk companies. The post implies caution about overvaluation driven by momentum rather than fundamentals.
Kass questions Baron's 'extremely optimistic projections' about SPCX by framing them with Buffett's warning about late-stage bull market euphoria. External data shows SPCX up 4.83% today at $201.80 with $2.66T market cap, having recently surpassed Amazon in valuation post-IPO with a 49% rally. The juxtaposition of this massive rally with Buffett's 1999 bubble warning suggests Kass views current valuation as disconnected from fundamentals, though he stops short of explicit bearish prediction.
TSLA mentioned only as context for Baron's past success with Musk companies, not as a current position or view. Currently down 1.58% at $404.66, facing negative headlines about FSD safety concerns and competition from BYD, with earnings July 21. Kass expresses no direct stance on TSLA itself.
事件 Earnings (EPS est 0.4525) · 2026-07-21
关键要点
Buffett's 1999 quote warns about investors chasing markets based on FOMO rather than fundamentals
Ron Baron makes extremely optimistic projections about SPCX
Kass acknowledges Baron's success with TSLA and SPCX but uses 'However' to signal disagreement
Implied concern about valuation disconnect from fundamentals in late bull market phase
