Every equity bubble inevitably becomes a credit bubble before it bursts...
Charlie Bilello: AI hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle) have issued 47% more debt in the first 5 months of this year ($159 billion) than all of last year ($108 billion). Their YTD debt issuance exceeds the combined issuance from 2020-2024.
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The author warns that the current equity market may be transitioning into a late-stage credit bubble, highlighting that major AI hyperscalers have issued an unprecedented amount of debt in the first five months of the year, exceeding the combined totals of the previous four years.
Amazon is cited as one of the hyperscalers contributing to a potential credit bubble through aggressive debt issuance. This bearish macro warning diverges from the stock's recent upward momentum (+3.15%). Earnings are approaching on 2026-07-29.
The author includes Google in the group of AI hyperscalers driving a 'credit bubble' due to massive debt issuance, implying a bearish outlook. This contrasts with the current positive price action (+3.40%) and recent news confirming Alphabet is raising massive capital ($84.75B) for AI initiatives. The company is also approaching earnings on 2026-07-21.
Meta is grouped among the AI hyperscalers whose record debt issuance signals a late-stage bubble. This bearish sentiment contrasts sharply with the stock's strong daily performance (+5.75%) and market optimism around its AI budget. Earnings are scheduled for 2026-07-28.
Microsoft is highlighted for its part in the unprecedented debt issuance by AI hyperscalers, which the author views as a precursor to a bubble bursting. This bearish view opposes the current positive market reaction (+2.52%) and strong cloud growth outlook. Earnings are expected on 2026-07-28.
Oracle is included in the list of companies fueling a potential credit bubble via massive debt issuance. The author's bearish warning contrasts with the stock's recent 5.46% rebound following a recent earnings selloff.
关键要点
Equity bubbles historically transition into credit bubbles before they burst.
AI hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) have issued $159 billion in debt in the first 5 months of the year.
The YTD debt issuance by these five companies is 47% higher than all of last year and exceeds the combined issuance from 2020 to 2024.
