HORMUZ OIL FLOWS SEEN RECOVERING ONLY BY LATE SUMMER
Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to normalize before late July and may only return to prewar levels by end-September, HSBC says. Delays stem from mine clearance, insurance, storage drawdowns, and restarting production. Saudi Arabia and the UAE may recover faster, while others lag. A partial reopening could cap flows near 60%, keeping global oil markets tight into 2027.
HSBC analysis projects extended disruption to Hormuz oil flows with normalization delayed until late July at earliest and full recovery potentially not until end-September. Partial reopening may cap flows at 60%, keeping global oil markets tight into 2027.
关键要点
Strait of Hormuz oil traffic normalization unlikely before late July
Full prewar flow levels may take until end-September to restore
Recovery delays driven by mine clearance, insurance issues, storage drawdowns, and production restart challenges
Saudi Arabia and UAE expected to recover faster than other producers
Partial reopening scenario could limit flows to 60% of normal capacity
Tight global oil supply conditions projected to persist into 2027
