RT JK
GREAT question.
Define risk per position
Where is the chart pattern invalidated?
Where is the stop?
How much capital is lost if stopped?
Define portfolio risk
If every stop gets hit simultaneously, what is the portfolio dd?
If that number is unacceptable, REDUCE positions or size.
Let trends do the work and accept that leadership clusters.
Strong trends often persist much longer than expected.
Major bull markets often have concentrated leadership.
Railroads in one era.
Technology in another.
AI infrastructure today.
Trying to force diversification because you're confident "fundamentals will change" is just fear.
Congrats on nice trades. Your risk, your reward.
Peter Brandt retweets commentary on position sizing and risk management philosophy. The post discusses defining per-position risk via stop levels, managing portfolio drawdown, and accepting concentrated leadership in bull markets. Examples given include historical railroad/technology leadership and current AI infrastructure. Emphasizes letting trends persist rather than forcing diversification out of fear that fundamentals will change.
关键要点
Risk management framework: define position risk by chart invalidation points and stop levels
Portfolio risk: assess simultaneous stop-out scenario and adjust size if drawdown unacceptable
Historical pattern: major bull markets often feature concentrated sector leadership (railroads, technology, AI infrastructure today)
Cautions against forcing diversification based on fundamental change predictions driven by fear
Acknowledges strong trends persist longer than expected
