Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders...
Is probably just the start of the bottleneck?
There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom.
Especially after Lumentum/Coherent got locked up with multi-year agreements with Nvidia. (disclosure, own Sive and aaoi)
Lumentum is already CW laser constrained and is likely buying off Japanese companies like Sumitomo/Furukawa if I had to guess per ER, and those are probably running at max capacity.
From the Trendforce report, this is:
"to ensure that its future capacity will not be constrained by NVIDIA and other major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)."
I wouldn't be surprised if other hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and others saw Nvidia / AMD signing LTAs, and are trying to secure capacity next.
A lot of it is game theory on not getting choked out by competitors, and looks like AMD is tipping the first domino after Nvidia.
But my opinion is that this just goes and show how invaluable this CW laser chokepoint is and the companies are inside it.
AMD is actively securing CW laser supply with major procurement orders, following Nvidia's lead in locking down capacity via long-term agreements. The author views this as validation of a structural supply bottleneck in Western CW laser capacity, particularly benefiting independent suppliers SIVE and AAOI, as Lumentum/Coherent are already tied up with Nvidia and operating at constraint. Expects other hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft) to follow suit in securing capacity to avoid being choked out by competitors.
