FED LIFTS RATE PATH, INFLATION OUTLOOK RISES
Federal Reserve projections show the median fed funds rate rising to 3.8% in 2026 (from 3.4%), 3.6% in 2027, and 3.4% in 2028, with the long-run rate unchanged at 3.1%. Officials now expect higher inflation through 2026, with PCE not returning to the 2% target until 2028. Growth is slightly lower, unemployment broadly steady. Only 18 of 19 policymakers submitted projections.
The Federal Reserve has raised its projected fed funds rate path and inflation outlook, expecting higher inflation through 2026 and delaying the return to the 2% PCE target until 2028.
关键要点
Median fed funds rate projected to rise to 3.8% in 2026, 3.6% in 2027, and 3.4% in 2028.
Long-run rate remains unchanged at 3.1%.
Inflation expected to remain higher through 2026, with the 2% PCE target not reached until 2028.
Economic growth projected to be slightly lower, while unemployment remains broadly steady.
