Two things can be true at once…. AI investments will end in a big bubble, but we are not there yet. See the image below. Grant thinks we are near the "peak of inflated expectations." Recent Gartner analysis puts agentic AI right at that peak, but I still think we have more of the curve to climb before we actually get there. I agree with Grant (and Gartner) that we’re on this curve — I’m just arguing about where we are on it. And yes, it could end up being the biggest bubble yet. We are in 1996 or 1997, not the spring of 2000. We Are Early About 5% of the corporate world is using the full potential of agentic AI. 85% to 90% are engaged with these tools and trying to figure out what they can actually do. I’m deep into using all these tools, and I’m still trying to fully understand them. But I can already see their massive power and how they will change everything in the next 2 to 4 years. I don’t think it will be as bad as most people worry. I think the net effect will be positive for employment and economic growth over time. That said, we’re about to go through a period of massive change, and change is always scary. Once these tools are better understood, that 5% usage will move toward 85%. At that point, we’ll realize that effective, usable compute and data center capacity is still too small for what’s coming. Hyperscalers are already spending hundreds of billions, but we’re not seeing the kind of overbuilding and low utilization that usually marks the top of these cycles. The real bubble comes when spending massively outpaces productive demand. We’re not there yet because the productive demand coming will be huge. How are we going to pay for all this? Worldwide, corporations already spend roughly $400–450 billion a year on SaaS. That’s thousands of dollars per corporate computer — often more than they spend on the hardware itself. A big chunk of that SaaS spending will likely get redirected or consolidated into AI. It’s similar to what happened with cameras, calculators, MP3 players, video recorders, maps, and alarm clocks — all of which eventually moved into the iPhone. AI agents should do something similar by consolidating a bunch of fragmented tools into a single intelligent interface. The future computer probably won’t need a keyboard most of the time. It will have a big context window, and you’ll mostly just tell it what you want. You won’t have to fight with a dozen different SaaS products trying to get them to talk to each other. Meb Faber: 𝗝𝗶𝗺 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗺: "I think that today is one of the greatest bubbles of all time." He argues the excitement around AI dwarfs the worldwide web and fiber optics, and that better technology doesn't ground the speculative spirit, it incites it.