财经博主在看多还是看空

92% chance US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, per Polymarket:

根据 Polymarket 的数据，Trump 本月与 Zelensky 会面的几率为 44%：

我确实说过 Foosung (093370) 将成为中国对日本出口管制造成的瓶颈中的主要赢家…… 大多数人追求 7.5% 的指数回报，然而发现的随机瓶颈可能在一天内带来 21% 的收益，哈哈 Serenity：好了，我的韩国同胞们，好久不见。 Foosung (093370，约 $1.2B MC) 看起来很快就会成为巨大的受益者。 基本上，中国对日本实施了出口管制，导致他们的 WF₆ 供应链中断。 这意味着 SK Hynix、Samsung 和 $TSM 所需的全球 25% 的供应量消失了

重大政策大转弯：瑞典议会废除移民永久居留签证 https://www.zerohedge.com/political/major-u-turn-swedish-parliament-abolishes-permanent-residence-visas-migrants

据 Israel 媒体报道，Netanyahu 告知 Trump，Israel 不受协议中 Lebanon 条款的约束

Iran 战争大约在 3 月 15 日结束。其核心是核武器。 从那时起，这就变成了 Strait of Hormuz 战争。其核心是油轮的自由通行。 Javier Blas：Trump 总统：“让石油流动吧。” 这总是——永远是——关于石油的。

突发 🚨：原油 Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr 📉📉

根据 CNN 报道，总统 Donald Trump 将在白宫场地举办一场 UFC 格斗之夜，作为美国 250 周年庆祝活动的一部分。

Yep, very stupid to be a bear. When Trump is doing everything to boost markets before Midterms. On top, your $WOLF power semi basket should go brrr from 800 VDC acceleration. $LITE optical basket should go brrr from InP easing. $SPCX successful IPO gives more appetite to risk on themes/IPOs (eg. Space sector). And overall macro go brr from War/Strait peace deals. It’s already kind of showing, since 2026 rate hike odds also crashed from 65% -> 35% following the news. Along with crude futures dropping. I've actually found Europe to be the most price sensitive to Iran tensions, so EU markets would probably be the most bullish overall… (South Korea/TW was originally with Sk Hynix moving directly in correlation to crude oil futures, but stopped caring after awhile). But basically: Murica go brrrr. SecondCurve40: @aleabitoreddit 看来美股又要大涨，太多利好消息了

Why Does America Have A 'Diversity Visa'? https://www.zerohedge.com/political/why-does-america-have-diversity-visa

SpaceX IPO 起飞，数据中心竞赛从 Ashburn 转移到 Abilene 再到太空 https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/spacex-ipo-lifts-data-center-race-moves-ashburn-abilene-space

Eichel 怎么了？

Morgan Stanley 解释为什么电力是 AI 革命的最大威胁 https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/morgan-stanley-explains-why-power-biggest-threat-ai-revolution

今天有新报告称，中国放宽了 InP 衬底的出口。 预计这将缓解光子学市场的大规模生产瓶颈（来源：Digitimes） 我的光学持仓听到这个消息非常高兴： 从 $AXTI（衬底）、$IQE（外延片）到 $AAOI（激光器）/ $LITE / $SIVE 等等。 像 VPEC、Landmark 等台湾光学企业也应该会大涨。 简而言之：光子学市场，特别是对于激光公司来说，更多的是“你能生产多少”，而不是有多少需求。 InP 衬底是影响上游产能的主要瓶颈之一。 因此，如果你能生产更多 = 更多收入。

彭博美国杠杆贷款指数在过去12个交易日中有10个交易日的二级市场价格下跌,尽管企业业绩表现良好,但分化对杠杆贷款市场中越来越多的板块造成了打击,使得低于60美元的贷款数量达到疫情后高位。左尾风险的后果已充分显现——特别是在软件领域——市场开始将许多发行人视为三级发行人。

埃克森美孚权衡伍德赛德交易 液化天然气成为战略优先事项 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/exxon-weighs-woodside-deal-lng-becomes-strategic-priority

$NVDA and $GOOGL lead 800V DC ahead of schedule. "Ahead of schedule", pulled up to Q3 2026 with small volume shipments starting . - Delta Electronics (2308), $VRT - Song Chuan Precision (7788) - Schneider Electric, Eaton, Siemens. All flagged as beneficiaries. "Market sources indicate that Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform and Google’s next-generation AI data centers will be the first to adopt the technology" Source: Commercial Times The power semi trade should be happy to hear this. Serenity: Morgan Stanley: $NVDA has denied the reports 800V DC has been pushed back. Recent SemiAnalysis reports run contrary to our own checks at Computex. Bro this has gotta be the dumbest CPO/800V selloff I’ve seen. Since the selloff from their claim $MU had 0 share of Nvidia HBM4

股票期货飙升 📈📈

象牙海岸 +250 baby

通胀危机即将爆发 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-sht-hitting-fan

"AI基础设施扩展可能比单纯的数据中心资本支出预测需要更长时间、更具顺序性和更多资本密集。" - MS zerohedge: 数据中心故事仅涉及7个州: VA、TX、OH、IL、PA、AZ和GA几乎占据所有计划中的数据中心。所有目光聚焦PJM和ERCOT

The data center story is one of just 7 states: VA, TX, OH, IL, PA, AZ and GA account for virtually all planned data centers. All eyes on PJM and ERCOT zerohedge: It gets worse: the grid connection requests active at the end of 2023 were more than double the total installed capacity of the US power plant fleet (2,600 GW vs. 1,280 GW). It's well more than 3,000 GW. There will be $trillions in semiconductor paperweights over the next

韩国同意与美国合作应对弱势韩元：联合通讯社

情况更糟：2023年末活跃的电网接入请求超过美国电厂总装机容量的两倍多（2,600 GW对比1,280 GW）。实际已超过3,000 GW。 未来十年将出现数万亿美元的半导体闲置资产 zerohedge：想建数据中心？仅电力变压器就要等2.5年（升压器要3年）

想要建设一个数据中心？那你必须等待2.5年才能获得电力变压器（升压变压器需要3年）

Goldman Derivatives Guru: Amid Dismal Liquidity 4.7x More Shorts Covering Than Long Buys Sets Stage For Summer Market https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-derivatives-guru-amid-dismal-liquidity-47x-more-shorts-covering-long-buys-sets

加拿大总理马克·卡尼表示，美国禁止外国访问Anthropic的Mythos凸显了过度依赖少数几个强大AI工具的风险。 "我们现在与Mythos和Fable面临的局面是过度依赖某些模型可能带来的结果。在这种情况下，没有人做错什么，但如果我们只是接受现状，不吸取教训，不建设和多元化发展，那我们就做错了，"卡尼周日在爱尔兰表示。

转推 Jennifer Jacobs 行政部门的一些人对关于谅解备忘录的不准确信息感到沮丧,比如伊朗获得120亿美元的说法。我被告知这些说法是假的。该协议是基于绩效的,每一步都有相应的条件。一位官员表示,如果伊朗人履行承诺,他们将获得救济,如果他们不履行,他们就不会。

Hyperscalers vs token prices

*日本日经指数上涨4%至68,666.92

股市火爆 UFC之夜在白宫今晚举行 美国主办世界杯 上帝保佑美国 🇺🇸

突破性新闻：埃隆·马斯克现在的身家超过了世界上排名第六至第十的五位最富有的亿万富翁的总和

对冲基金首席投资官：本轮周期已开始终结，狂热过度的希望与梦想将无法被盈利数据所证实 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-end-cycle-has-started-wildly-excessive-hopes-and-dreams-wont-be-justified

Iran-U.S. "peace deal" to be signed on 19 June in Switzerland, says the Pakistani PM.

伊朗和平协议现已由巴基斯坦在X上宣布，经美国领导人和伊朗媒体在X上确认，并得到卡塔尔在X上的支持。 X已成为讨论和宣布世界上最具影响力决策的中心场所。

Micron $MU soars to its most overbought level in more than 30 years 🚨🚨

一艘在波斯湾被困3个多月的液化天然气油轮似乎正驶向霍尔木兹海峡，而美国和伊朗表示已达成重新开放该水道的协议 - Bloomberg

*美国如无法达成伊朗核协议将恢复对伊朗的打击：纽约时报

*特朗普称备忘录暂停海峡过路费60天：纽约时报

UBS与主要餐厅特许经营商接触揭示令人担忧的消费者趋势 https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/ubs-checks-major-restaurant-franchisees-reveal-troubling-consumer-trends

This is the type of analysis only a top tier bank like BofA could provide Bank of America just sent a note to clients saying a New York Knicks championship parade a day after the Fed adds to the "vibes of a market top"

RT Stephen Stapczynski An LNG tanker appears to be heading to the Strait of Hormuz, just as the US and Iran say they have reached a deal to reopen the waterway 🚢 ⚠️ The Disha (which is chartered by India) has been stuck in the Persian Gulf for >3 months. The tanker is carrying a cargo from Qatar

Trump Says Hormuz To Reopen Friday After Signing Of "Great Peace Deal" With Iran https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-says-peace-deal-coming-sunday-tehran-signals-still-reviewing-text

彼得·林奇：股市中最重要的是了解你拥有的股票 他说大多数人无法通过一个简单的测试。 如果你不能在两分钟内用简单的方式向一个10岁的孩子解释你为什么拥有某只股票，那么你就不应该拥有它： "我很惊讶有多少人拥有股票。他们甚至说不出为什么拥有它。他们一分钟内说不出理由。如果你真的逼迫他们：我拥有这只股票的原因就是这个家伙在上涨。这是唯一的理由。" 林奇随后将其与沃伦·巴菲特的能力圈联系起来： "你能理解的所有业务是投资中最重要的方面。如果你对某个业务是否在你的能力圈内有疑虑，那就不在。" 他的观点是：你可以理解可口可乐、麦当劳、沃尔玛、好市多。停留在这个圈子里。 "最好是完全在圈子内，而不是试图沿着边界踮脚走。我的能力圈很小，但足够大。"

RT Arya Yadeghaar (Backup) Mehr News has released a short version of the 14-clauses of the MoU that will be signed on Friday, between Iran & US. 1. The permanent and immediate halt of war on all fronts, including Lebanon. 2. A U.S. commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. 3. The complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days. 4. A U.S. commitment to withdraw its forces from the areas surrounding Iran. 5. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian “arrangements”. 6. The suspension of oil sanctions, petrochemical products and derivatives, and Iran’s full access to the financial proceeds from them. 7. The requirement for the US & its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion. 8. Sixty days of negotiations to reach a final agreement based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of primary and secondary U.S. sanctions, as well as UN Security Council resolutions and resolutions of the IAEA Board of Governors. 9. Iran’s reiteration of its commitment under the NPT not to produce nuclear weapons. 10. During the negotiation period, the U.S. has committed not to add to its forces in the region and not to impose any new sanctions. 11. The release of $24 billion of Iran’s frozen funds during the 60-day period of final negotiations. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before the negotiations begin. 12. The formation of a supervisory mechanism to implement the agreement. 13. The final agreement will be approved through a UN Security Council resolution. 14. Final negotiations will not begin before half of Iran’s frozen funds are released, Iran’s oil sanctions are suspended, and the naval blockade is lifted. The final agreement will be limited only to the fate of enriched materials and enrichment, sanctions relief, and the program for rebuilding Iran’s economy. Discussions about Iran’s missile program and support for Resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda.

很少有其他市场能像比特币那样恰当地符合古典制图原理的理解（Schabacker、Edwards、Magee）

伊朗-美国谅解备忘录包括伊朗被冻结的240亿美元中的一半必须在最终谈判开始前可用 - 伊朗媒体

SPACEX COULD BRING IN $300-400 BILLION IN REVENUE PER YEAR BY 2030 SAYS ARK INVEST Here's the math that gets @wintonARK there: Starlink currently has ~500 terabits per second of bandwidth in space. One Starship rocket filled with satellites adds 60 terabits per second. 10 launches roughly doubles their bandwidth. 10 launches doubles their revenue. SpaceX has done 150-160 Falcon 9 launches. Falcon 9 isn't even fully reusable. If they run Starship at that same cadence for 2 years, the model gets to nearly $200 billion in Starlink revenue alone. At a 10x revenue multiple, that's a $2 trillion valuation.

Waste Of The Day: Disaster In Small NM Village https://www.zerohedge.com/political/waste-day-disaster-small-nm-village

DRAFT IRAN-U.S. MEMORANDUM WOULD SUSPEND SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL AND PETROCHEMICAL SALES - IRANIAN MEDIA