财经博主在看多还是看空

伯恩斯坦今日将 $AMD 股票目标价从 $525 上调至 $600，同时维持跑赢大盘评级 TipRanks: ⚡️ $AMD 目标价从 $525 上调至 $600（伯恩斯坦) 伯恩斯坦将该公司对 AMD 的目标价从 $525 上调至 $600，并维持对该股的跑赢大盘评级。 该公司认为 AMD 应该受益于服务器需求增强。伯恩斯坦现有 AMD 模型

Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders... Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom. Especially after Lumentum/Coherent got locked up with multi-year agreements with Nvidia. (disclosure, own Sive and aaoi) Lumentum is already CW laser constrained and is likely buying off Japanese companies like Sumitomo/Furukawa if I had to guess per ER, and those are probably running at max capacity. From the Trendforce report, this is: "to ensure that its future capacity will not be constrained by NVIDIA and other major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)." I wouldn't be surprised if other hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and others saw Nvidia / AMD signing LTAs, and are trying to secure capacity next. A lot of it is game theory on not getting choked out by competitors, and looks like AMD is tipping the first domino after Nvidia. But my opinion is that this just goes and show how invaluable this CW laser chokepoint is and the companies are inside it.

多家族住宅开工量在5月出现历史性下降……在完整的数据历史中,仅有两个月份的环比下降幅度更大

前机构交易员凯文·穆尔逆市看涨,呼吁现在买入石油。

In my opening missive on @thestreetpro I explain why I shorted the Indices at 4AM this morning: Early Wednesday Morning Trading (4:05 AM) I am back adding to index shorts with S&P futures +20 handles and Nasdaq futures +260 handles: * $SPY $752.33 * $QQQ $736.17 BY Doug Kass · Jun 17, 2026, 5:44 AM EDT Unlike Fin TV, I timestamp and memorialize every trade in real time. And unlike panelists I am often wrong and always in doubt. I don't sweep my losers under the carpet. I don't use Twitter or @business to polish my image and "improve" my franchise to sell a service or gather assets. Bottom Line: I don't really care about B.S.'ing home gamers. @KeithMcCullough @SamofAmerica @RPKent @HedgeyeDJ

In my opening missive on @thestreetpro I explain why I shorted the Indices at 4AM this morning: Dougie Kass 1h ago I am back adding to Index shorts with S&P futures +20 handles and Nasdaq futures +260 handles: *$SPY $752.33 * $QQQ $736.17 Unlike Fin TV, I timestamp and memorialize every trade in real time. And unlike panelists I am often wrong and always in doubt. I don't sweep my losers under the carpet. I don't use Twitter or @business to polish my image and "improve" my franchise to sell a service or gather assets. Bottom Line: I don't really care about B.S.'ing home gamers. @KeithMcCullough @SamofAmerica @RPKent @HedgeyeDJ

$SPCX - SpaceX 引发科技泡沫担忧 SpaceX 上市后涨幅接近 50%，引发了人们对科技估值可能过热的担忧。作为全球第五大有价值公司，SpaceX 的涨势尽管没有利润预期且对其雄心勃勃的太空计划存疑而来。Swissquote 的 Ipek Ozkardeskaya 称该股票是科技估值可能过度的警告信号。股票盘前再涨 3.5%，至 $208.85。

The heavy, imported-energy dependency of Europe made underweight a consensus recommendation for the last three months. Hopes for a peace deal, though, may reverse that trend and Barclays highlight luxury stocks there as an opportunity.

The Eve of Destruction... Defiance Investments: $SPCU went live. One ticker. 2x the daily move of $SPCX.

$NFLX is a fave of Fin TV panelists (Drawdown et al) but we don't hear about the losing ideas. They are not timestamped. @KeithMcCullough Bespoke: Netflix $NFLX continues to plummet, down 4%+ today and 27% in the last two months after a brief bounce from late February to mid-April. How low will this one go? Market cap now at $328 billion. Not even close to mega-cap status.

BMW 在周三表现为欧洲主要股票中表现最差的，该豪华汽车制造商下调了利润前景，理由是中国经济衰退以及中东战争的影响。

GE航空航天公司 $GE 形成自2022年12月以来首次的黄金交叉 ✅ 上一次出现时股价在接下来的18个月内飙升240% 📈📈

韩国🇰🇷散户投资者周五购买了价值7.96亿美元的SpaceX $SPCX股票 IPO新闻室：韩国🇰🇷散户投资者在第一天购买了价值7.96亿美元的SpaceX $SPCX 仅在一天内，SpaceX成为韩国1400万个人投资者中最受欢迎的美国股票。 该单日总额超过了任何其他美国股票的累计净购买量

我不太明白为什么很多人对我高度确信的做多 $AAOI 极度看空…… 从 $30 开始，一直到上涨至 $170 的过程中都是如此。（是的，我认为每一个看空者都是错的，我们走着瞧）。 他们拥有 $AMD 和其他超大规模企业正在寻找的稀缺激光器产能。 而整个行业正受到 $NVDA 的瓶颈限制。 此外，他们还拥有用于大规模生产 800g/1.6T 的美国收发器供应链（管理层表示这是美国最大的）。 同时需求远超供应，且组装业务被外包到亚洲。 然后他们给出的报价是，在 2027 年 H1 进入 H2 时，月收入将达到 $471M。这相当于 $5.6B 的 ARR，而目前的 MC 仅为 $13.5B…… 而许多重大的拐点放量甚至要到 2028 年才会出现。 至于波动，可能会有活跃的 $600M ATM 在随机时间被动用。 加上不时的随机看空帖子和宏观因素会导致更多波动（例如，分析师报告称由于虚假的 CPO 延迟传闻而看空 $LITE，进而拖累了该板块的其他股票）。 而且我们还有一年的时间，所以时间线仍然有点早。 自从 $NBIS 以来，我还没见过如此快速的收入增长。 AMITESHKUMAR: @aleabitoreddit AAOI又高跳下落，对此你怎么看

JUST IN 🚨: Michael Burry wants to short SpaceX $SPCX, but the options are too expensive

BREAKING 🚨: Semiconductor Stocks Semis plunge by almost 6%, their 2nd largest loss since October 2025 📉📉 Barchart: Sandisk $SNDK hits a 99.13 on the Monthly RSI, the most overbought level for any stock in history 🚨🚨

HSBC and Google Cloud $GOOGL just announced a new multi-year partnership to roll out AI tools across HSBC's global operations, including through projects that can each generate "more than $100M" in extra revenue or savings - Bloomberg

AI CHIPS ARE 420,000X MORE ENERGY EFFICIENT THAN THEY WERE A DECADE AGO And yet electricity demand from AI keeps rising. Here is why. NVIDIA $NVDA chip energy cost per token: Kepler (2014): 42,000 joules Pascal (2016): 17,460 joules Volta (2018): 1,200 joules Ampere (2020): 150 joules Hopper (2022): 10 joules Blackwell (2024): 0.4 joules Blackwell Ultra / Rubin (2026): 0.1-0.2 joules That is a 420,000x improvement in 12 years. So why is power demand still exploding? The Jevons Paradox. When the cost of inference drops, more people use AI. More use cases get unlocked. More tokens get generated. The efficiency gain gets consumed by volume growth. Cheaper AI does not mean less energy demand. It means more AI. Tema ETFs: AI chips are 420,000x more energy efficient than a decade ago, and yet electricity demand keeps rising. That’s the Jevons Paradox: efficiency lowers the cost of inference, accelerating AI adoption and driving even greater power demand.

全球央行对黄金极其看好： 根据世界黄金委员会对74家央行的调查，45%的央行表示计划在未来12个月内购买黄金，这是有记录以来的最高读数。 这一比例自2020年以来翻了一番多，标志着连续第3年增长。 新兴市场和发展中经济体央行领涨，该群体中约53%计划增加黄金储备，高于去年的48%。 总体而言，89%的央行预期未来12个月全球黄金储备将增加，这是有记录以来第2高的读数。 央行正在逢低买进黄金。

It's a hard life being a Snapchat $SNAP shareholder Polymarket: JUST IN: Snap stock plummets -10%.

Stock Market hits most expensive valuation in history, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the run-up to the Great Depression 🤯👀

Mizuho Research: No delays on CPO or 800v dc. Revised up optical engine projections from $NVDA demand ramp. - Next phase in CPO for long term, believes InP DFB lasers remains the focus (hello $SIVE). VSCEL and microLED remain "unproven" in short distance in rack + chip to chip for 1.6T+ - HVDC deployment on track, 800VDC incremental volume 2027, with higher penetration in 2028. What a stupid CPO related selloff recently. Serenity: $NVDA Networking Senior Vice President refuting recent analyst reports on delays: - “ the most exciting stuff is co-packaged optics.” - There is no delay in H2 CPO product delivery schedule. - CPO switch will enter mass production and begin ramping up customer deliveries as

中央银行创纪录比例预计未来12个月增加黄金储备 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-percentage-central-banks-expect-gold-reserves-increase-next-12-months

hey @mythos, pull the cross-default provisions from all the chip-backed SPV indentures zerohedge: Perfect storm: token costs down 20% since start of the month (down 11 of 12 days) , while compute rental prices are at 1 month lows

尊敬的@日本银行_e，日元在31年来最高利率下暴跌，这看起来不太妙。

The AI revolution needs more funding: Net equity issuances are estimated to rise to ~$200 billion in 2026 and surge +500% YoY in 2027, to ~$1.2 trillion, according to JP Morgan. This includes IPOs, secondary offerings, and other share sales after accounting for buybacks. Combined, this would be the largest 2-year period of net stock issuance since at least the late 1990s. This marks a sharp reversal from ~$12 trillion of shares repurchased in the previous 20 years, shrinking the available stock supply consistently each year. The surge is being driven by SpaceX's, $SPCX, $85.7 billion IPO, the largest in history, alongside upcoming mega IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic. At the same time, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, and Oracle, $ORCL, are expected to raise hundreds of billions in secondary share offerings to fund their AI spending plans. We are about to witness a historic wave of US equity issuance.

Semiconductor Stocks Tumble After Microsoft Balks At $3B Oracle Cloud Deal https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/chip-stocks-tumble-after-microsoft-balks-3b-oracle-cloud-deal

There go the chips MSFT WALKED AWAY FROM A $3BN DEAL TO LEASE ORACLE CLOUD CAPACITY OVER SECURITY CONCERNS: INSIDER

no sweat, just $1.4 trillion in funding commitments that keep the entire AI circle jerk oscillating Ed Zitron: Exclusive: I have seen OpenAI's audited financials for 2024 and 2025. In 2025, OpenAI had $13.07 billion in revenue and $34 billion in costs. $867 million of its revenue came from SoftBank, and $303 million came from Microsoft. https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/

RT Seabreeze Partners Small Float, Big Hype. "That’s All There Is" Now on the blog tab of https://seabreezepartnerslp.com

That’s All There Is "And when I was twelve years old My daddy took me to the circus The greatest show on Earth There were clowns and elephants, dancing bears And a beautiful lady in pink Tights flew high above our heads And as I sat there watching I had the feeling that something was missing I don’t know what, but When it was over I said to myself Is that all there is to the circus?" – Peggy Lee, Is That All There Is?  Yesterday we all saw a constant parade of interviews on Fin TV with interested (and biased) SpaceX ($SPCX) parties (founders, long-time private market investors, board members, management and those that got stock in the IPO – even a few Wall Street firms that were launching leveraged ETFs on SpaceX). To a person they waxed enthusiastically (but vaguely with glittering generalities) about the almost insane TAM (total addressable markets) that the company faces. To Mars and beyond…. was the prevailing mantra. There was not one interview with a skeptical analyst/observer.  Key man risk, execution risk, etc. were glossed over. But there is another thing that was not emphasized… that is a key reason why the shares are currently trading more than 50% higher than the IPO price of $135/share. I am sorry to break this news to the business media and to investors/traders but one of the most important reasons that SpaceX is trading anywhere near its current level is that the float is extremely small — in absolute terms and relative to the index inclusions, volume of options trading, hype and other choreography. "Is that all there is Is that all there is? If that’s all there is my friends Then let’s keep dancing Let’s break out the booze and have a ball If that’s all there is" Position: Short SPCX (VS) BY Doug Kass · Jun 16, 2026, 3:06 PM EDT Dougie Kass: The stock market's reaction to the Iran deal is puzzling. It can be boiled down into this. What we have seen is a total obliteration of a country in war only to negotiate like we (the winner)  lost the war? It may be early but it looks like the one who claims he is the

转发 Charlie Bilello 我关于SpaceX/半导体的警示文章似乎引起了反感。 收到许多愤怒/冒犯的邮件。 上一次看到这种情况是在2021年，当时我在警告meme stock/SPAC/ARKK的疯狂。 历史不会重复，但常常押韵。 Charlie Bilello：荒谬：SpaceX的市值为2.96万亿美元，刚刚超过微软，成为全球第4大公司。 微软销售额：3180亿美元 微软净利润：1250亿美元 SpaceX销售额：190亿美元 SpaceX净利润：-90亿美元

My cautionary posts about SpaceX/Semiconductors seem to have struck a nerve. Receiving many enraged/offensive e-mails. Last time I saw this was in 2021 when I was warning about the meme stock/SPAC/ARKK manias. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Charlie Bilello: Insanity: with a market cap of $2.96 trillion, SpaceX just passed Microsoft to become the 4th largest company in the world. Microsoft Sales: $318 billion Microsoft Net Income: $125 billion SpaceX Sales: $19 billion SpaceX Net Income: -$9 billion

The stock market's reaction to the Iran deal is puzzling. It can be boiled down into this. What we have seen is a total obliteration of a country in war only to negotiate like we (the winner)  lost the war? It may be early but it looks like the one who claims he is the master of the "Art of The Deal" was fleeced by the fanatical zealots of Iran. From @thestreetpro The Iran Deal Is a Tragic Failure The Iranian deal, as announced, is a tragic failure and shows how badly out-negotiated the U.S was.The major U.S. asset in the negotiations was the blockade yet amazingly it was the first concession the U.S. made. This destroys our negotiating position as Tehran knows that once the blockade ends and the ships routed away, it is highly unlikely that it will ever be reconstituted. In contrast, Iran can reinstate a blockade of Hormuz at any time it wishes and the issue of control and fees was not even conceded by Iran. At a time when the U.S. initially said benefits to Iran would be based on performance, the reverse has occurred. It is the U.S. which must act first. The Iranians demanded the end of the blockade before allowing free passage.With all the focus on Iran’s nuclear program, it is totally absent in this agreement, no commitments regarding removing the enriched material, no dismantling the enriching infrastructure, no inspections—all to rediscussed later.T There is nothing regarding curtailing extensive missile production.There are no commitments for Iran to stop supporting resistance groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Indeed, Lebanon was included in the plans for cessation of military activity which, in essence, confirms Iran’s commitment to Hezbollah. This restricts Israel’s ability to defend itself and creates enormous pressures for Netanyahu. This agreement hands the Revolutionary Guards a great victory and cements their governance in Iran. The Iranian people, who we claimed to stand by, have been abandoned. Regime change is gone.The 60-day negotiating period is meaningless as it can be extended and likely will be. Iran knows that President Trump’s desperate to stop the war despite his bluster and knows he will not take any military action before the midterms. Thus, the big issues, which were the basis of the original strike, will likely go unresolved for a very long time and many never be resolved as Iran loves to play the long game. The coexistence of this terrible agreement with the spectacle of a cage fight on the White House lawn is hard to take — but the markets apparently feel different and are rejoicing. We have shorted the jubilation... @squawkbox @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @joesquawk @saraeisen @carlquintanilla @TheJudgeCNBC @CGasparino @guyadami @cnbcfastmoney @halftime @gnoble79 @KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeDJ @peterboockvar @convertbond @tomkeene @annmarie @lisaabramowicz1 @ferrotv @business @maddow @sruhle @WhitneyTilson @cnbc

[Subscribers Only] Tenaris (TS) aggressive buy 2000 July $60 puts $1.…

[Subscribers Only] WingStop (WING) buyer 750 September $165 put…

抛售潮。 根据高盛 S&T "交易活动水平为 4/10。我们目前在整个交易厅的卖方偏好为 9% 长仓目前在卖方偏好为 13%，供应集中在 IT 和消费类股。对冲基金目前的卖方偏好为 17%"

RT edward m kelly 转发 @DougKass @business @CNBCFastMoney @HalftimeReport @tomkeene 毫无疑问,先生。Jenny,特别是今天,她在描述她投资组合中涨幅50%或以上的所有股票——她似乎完全不敢相信。根本没有提到过风险。这种情况现在很普遍。$QQQ

[仅限订阅者] REZI 6000 七月 $40 认购期权…

$SPCX 9月 $170看跌期权大宗买家中午时段 6500X，交易金额1500万美元

BREAKING 🚨: Crude Oil Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr 📉📉

转发 Eric Balchunas 关于2x SpaceX ETF竞争的最新进展：交易量超30亿美元（vs 昨日10亿）惊人的是每一只都基本上交易量在1亿或以上。难以置信。此外，$SPCH在13亿美元是ETF有史以来第二天记录的最大交易量（$IBIT仅录得5亿）。完全是交易狂潮。对那些怀疑是否有足够的交易者同时支持这么多追踪同一股票的杠杆ETF的人（包括我）。事实证明确实有。这真是个国家。

美国国债期货 基于这份图表，贝叶斯概率现在倾向于将最近的下跌视为熊市陷阱 $ZB_F

Someone did the math. May want to rerun the IRR on that $5 trillion in capex stat... Techmeme: Microsoft is moving Copilot Cowork to usage-based pricing and is considering a Microsoft-hosted version of DeepSeek as a cheaper option (@inafried / Axios) (Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)

Turns out $WYFI under $15 was in fact a bargain...

BREAKING: US oil prices extend losses to -7% on the day, falling below $76/barrel, on news that the US-Iran deal is expected to include sanctions relief.

比特币供应量的一半仍处于亏损 约1000万比特币，占流通供应量的大约一半，目前处于水下，Cex.io表示。 尽管稳定在60,000美元附近，未实现损失仍处于2018年和2022年熊市期间看到的水平。 该公司警告比特币可能尚未触及底部，尽管ETF流出已放缓。比特币最近以65,724美元下跌1.1%交易。

[Subscribers Only] Magnite (MGNI) strong trend sees 7500 …

A $10,000 investment in $SPCX today could eventually be worth $110,000, according to Billionaire Investor Ron Baron, who believes SpaceX could be valued at $30 Trillion within 15 years. For magnified exposure, consider the Tradr 2X Long SpaceX Daily ETF $SPCM from @TradrETFs Barchart: SpaceX $SPCX could be valued at $30 Trillion within the next 15 years, says Billionaire Investor Ron Baron 🚨 This would represent a gain of more than 1600% from the company's IPO price ✅ For magnified exposure, consider the Tradr 2X Long SpaceX Daily ETF $SPCM from @TradrETFs

RT Mark Neuman, CFA The challenges of AI: 1) Commoditization. Everyone can produce an encyclopedia now. So what! Look what happened to search engines, cloud storage, email. All prices trend to zero.  2) Is China getting fully entrenched in AI, like Deep Seek, etc? What happens to PnL then? 3) Homogenous output: 4 queries, 4 AI systems (Grok, Claude, Chat, Gemini, let's say.) Other than slight political bias inherent in the creators, how different is the output? I am saying 80% correlated, and I'm probably low. What's the moat? 4) Like any social media/clickbait/attention grabber, these AI systems want you to stick around. Why would they give you the best, perfect answer in round 1. Like, "ask me another question" type stuff is there to keep you engaged. Would they slow down retrieval? Would they create loops instead of endpoints? No, never, RIGHT?? 5) Barely anyone reads newspapers anymore. Smartphones ended that. The info was ubiquitous, became free, nearly costless. How is this so uniquely different? 6) In the end, "We are the fastest, best, most unique, most trustworthy," and that's it? That's what everyone is chasing? (Like don't get me started on the 5000+ ETFs (a dozen SPCX ETFs now, like what's the distinguishing feature in any of them?)) Please. 7) All reeks of SUNW McNealy's "What were you thinking?" memo circa 1999-2000. Henceforth, is anyone going to rely on just one system? How much pie is there to split? Especially if output values go towards zero, energy costs are higher, and there's a free version available that takes 20% longer. Time, money, value. Does everyone know this, agree with this, or am I off base here? Just trying to read the room. I see deals left, right, and center and they are financing each other to buy more of each other's wares which are trending towards huge deflation. Next up, where did all the FCF go? ORCL FY2024 Q1 $9.5bln, FY2025 Q2 -$13.2bln. AMZN Q4 2024 $38.2bln to Q1 2025 $1.2bln. FCF was negative for quarters in 2025. GOOG 2024 $72.8Bln, 2025 approximately ZERO. Sure it's nothing. @mavenfund @DougKass @gnoble79 @ArturoVandelayI @DavidBCollum @davevermilion @lighthousejerry @TgMacro @dailydirtnap @RealJimChanos